Friday, January 21, 2011

NFC Conference Championship Game Picks


Here we are, 2 games left to decide who will battle on Super Bowl Sunday for the coveted Lombardi Trophy.  In one corner, the AFC title game features two great defenses with the tough as nails Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the trash-talking  New York Jets.  In the other corner the NFC title bout features one of the best rivalries in the game as NFC North foes the Green Bay Packers travel to Soldier field to take on the Da Bears.  So whose going to win?  Tomorrow we will break down the AFC showdown but today YourManTalk breaks down the NFC title game and gives you our pick to win. 
     





Green Bay Packers Key Offensive Player: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers
So far this post-season Aaron Rodgers has been absolutely lights out.  In his first two games Rodgers has completed nearly 80% of his passes with an astonishing QB rating of 134.5.  If he continues to sling it at this pace the Packers will be Super Bowl bound.  However he will have his work cut out for him Sunday against the all-too-familiar Bears.  The two teams split the regular season series with each team winning at home.  In the two games against the Bears this season Rodgers has thrown only 2 touchdowns with 2 interceptions.  Those numbers wont get it done in the NFC Championship game but so far Rodgers has played his best when it matters most, in the playoffs.  Packers will need another solid outing from their Cube to move on.
Green Bay Packers Key Defensive Player: Linebacker Clay Matthews
In only his second NFL season linebacker Clay Matthews has already emerged as one of the best defensive players in the NFL.  This season Clay was fourth in the league in sacks with 13.5 during the regular season.  He's a disruptive force coming off the edge in Dom Capers scheme and will be hunting Jay Cutler all afternoon.  However, the Bears did a great job of neutralizing Matthews in the regular season only giving up one sack to him in 2 games.  Matthews needs to get after Cutler and make him uncomfortable in the pocket because Cutler can tear opposing defenses apart when given enough time.  If he does so the Packers will  be in great shape to go to their first Super Bowl since Brett Favre led them in since Super Bowl XXXII in 1998. 

Green Bay Packers X Factor: Running Back James Starks
The loss of running back Ryan Grant in week 1 really hampered the Packers running attack that ranked 24th in the NFL in rushing yards per game during the regular season.  The addition of a running game to the potent Packers aerial attack would make this team very tough to beat.  In the Wild-card game at Philadelphia the Pack had just that thanks to Starks.  The rookie out of Buffalo ran for 123 of the teams 138 yards rushing which helped seal the deal against the Eagles.  However in the divisional round the ground game struggled again against the Falcons, amassing only 96 yards.  Fortunately Rodgers couldn't miss and the Packers advanced to the title game.  But in whats sure to be a very tough game the running game could be the difference.  If Starks can pound the ball like he did against the Eagles it will keep the Bears offense off the field and the the Packers in line of a shot at the Lombardi Trophy.
Chicago Bears Key Offensive Player: Quarterback Jay Cutler
This game is quite the quarterback battle with the Bears having their own young franchise QB in Jay Cutler.  While everyone raved about Rodgers performance last weekend Cutlers 4 TD (2 passing, 2 rushing) performance was easily overshadowed.  Last season Cutler was known for his high number of interceptions but really dialed it back this year under Mike Martz.  For the first time in his career he had more touchdowns then picks and led the Bears to the second seed in the NFC.  One of the biggest concerns for the Cutler and the Bear is whether or not his offensive line can give Cutler enough time to be affective.  Cutler was sacked 52 times in the regular seasons including 9 times against the Giants in week 4.  If given time Cutler needs to be accurate and lead his team like last week.  If so Da Bears will return to the Super Bowl for the second time in Lovie Smiths tenure as head coach.
Chicago Bears Key Defensive Player: Defensive End Julius Peppers 
The Bears signed Peppers for moments like this.  One the other side of the field is a quarterback on fire in Aaron Rodgers and the Bears need a pass rusher to disrupt him.  Enter Peppers, the stud DE signed away from Carolina in free agency this year.  In his first season as a Bear he anchored the d-line with 8 sacks and added much needed pass rush to the Bears stingy D.  However in 2 games against the Pack and in the divisional round of the playoffs Peppers has a big goose egg in the sack department.  If Peppers and the Bears cant get to Rodgers and throw off the Packers offense its going to be a long day for the monsters of the midway.  The Bears need him to step up and earn his money.  Doing so will give the Bears to avenge their loss to the Colts in Super Bowl XLI in 2007.
Chicago Bears X Factor: Returner Devin Hester
Special teams is a key facet of football especially in the playoffs and the Bears have one of the best return men in all of football in  the lightening quick Devin Hester.  Earlier this year he set the NFL record for career punt return touchdowns with 11.  In a close grind em out battle a special teams touchdown could be the difference.  Even if he cant find the end-zone Hester has the opportunity to provide the Bears with great field position every possession.  He returned a kickoff in the Super Bowl in 2007 and is capable to break one every time.  Packers need to  keep him under wraps in order to win.
Final Verdict: Packers over Bears 24-17
Aaron Rodgers is just too good right now and will continue to prove he is one of the best quarterbacks in all the NFL.  Clay Matthews breaks through when it matters and the Packers D forces at least 2 Cutler INT's.  Somewhere Curly Lambeau smiles, the Pack are Super Bowl bound again.

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