AFC Conference Championship Game Picks

Yesterday we broke down the NFC title game and predicted the Green Bay Packers would fill one spot in Super Bowl XLV.  Who will represent the AFC?  Lets break it down.

New York Jets Key Offensive Player: Quarterback Mark Sanchez
Lets face it, solid quarterback play is the most crucial component of making it to the Super Bowl.  So if the Jets are going to make it to the Super Bowl Mark Sanchez must play well.  So far this season Sanchez has been very up and down, playing very well at times and dreadful at others.  However this is only his second season in the league and has vastly improved his play from a year ago.  His touchdowns, yards passing, and QB rating are up while his interceptions are down.  And keep in mind that Sanchez is 4-1 in the playoffs so despite his youth he's found a way to get it done.  Now there are two keys for Sanchez's success, one, he must protect the football.  In the Jets week 15 win in Pittsburgh, Sanchez didn't throw any picks or fumble the football.  Turnovers in the post-season lead to defeats so Sanchez must protect the ball.  The second key for Sanchez is that he cannot be asked to sling the ball 35+ times.  Of the Jets 5 losses in the regular season 4 came when Sanchez had to throw it more then 35 times. Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenhiemer needs to run a balanced attack by sticking to a running game that ranked 4th in the NFL during the regular season.  However, Sanchez and the Jets offense have their work cut out for them against the best defense in the NFL.
New York Jets Key Defensive Player: Bart Scott

Bart Scott is the heart and soul of the trash-talking Jets.  He epitomizes what that team is about and must lead his defense against Big Ben and the Steelers.  Scott isn't the best player on the Jets defense but he is their leader. If he can stop the run, get after Big Ben, and set the tone with some big hits early the Jets can top the Steelers.  In the last game against he Black and Gold Scott was able to pick off Big Ben to help secure a Jets victory. All eyes will be on Bart to live up to the talk.  They did so last week lets see if they can do it again.
New York Jets X Factor: Kicker Nick Folk
As any Jets fan can surely attest, its unpredictable what will happen when Folk lines up for a field goal.  Hes connected on only 76% of his attempts this season including 3 missed field goals against Cleveland in week 10.  He's already missed one in the playoffs however he did hit the game-winner in the Wild-card round against the Colts.  In a game of two very good defenses it could come down to a field goal.  Heinz Field has a reputation around the league as one of the toughest places to kick field goals.  The wind whips in many different directions in the south end-zone and will make clutch field goals that much more challenging. The Jets better hope Folk hits em tomorrow or it could be another loss in the AFC title game.


Pittsburgh Steelers Key Offensive Player: Quarterback Ben Roethlesburger
Despite all the off the field distractions and negative publicity Roethlisburger has dealt with over the years the guy is a winner and a helluva quarterback.  He already has 2 Super Bowl rings and is in position to possibly win his 3rd and oh yea hes only 28.  Big Ben makes that offense go and he needs to lead them again against an aggressive hard hitting defense.  What makes Ben so special is his ability to extend plays beyond the pocket after getting pressured.  The Jets will surely try to dial up the blitz this week and if Big Ben can escape hes going to be very dangerous.  Big Ben has been playing his best football this year, throwing only 5 interceptions and has a QB rating of almost 100, exceptional for an NFL starting quarterback.  The Jets were able beat the Steelers in week 15 in large part because the Jets secondary locked down on Steelers recievers and didnt give Big Ben time to find the open guy.  In the loss to the Jets, Roethlesburger completed only 52% of his passes, 10 points down from his season average.  He's going to need to do better then that to make it to Dallas.
Pittsburgh Steelers Key Defensive Player: Safety Troy Polamalu

In the Steelers earlier meeting to the Jets, Pittsburgh was without their stud safety Polamalu.  So essentially throw that result out because its a whole new ball game with Polamalu in the lineup.  Year in and year out Polamalu is one of the best defensive players in the league.  He plays with reckless abandon doling out big hits and big plays on consistent basis.  He tied for second in the NFL in interceptions this year with 7 and prowls the secondary for the Steelers.  Mark Sanchez must be aware of where Polamalu is at all times. Despite his obvious talent Polamalu's job gets harder this week because of a very talented Jets receiving corp.  Former Steeler and Super Bowl hero Santonio Holmes is a big-time play-maker and Braylon Edwards has shed the "butter fingers" label and has come up with some big plays for the Jets in the last few weeks.  If Polamalu can shut them down and force a Sanchez interception the Steelers will be in good shape.
Pittsburgh Steelers X Factor: Wide Receiver Mike Wallace
In just his second season in the NFL Mike Wallace has emerged as the biggest playmaker in the Steelers offense.  He's a speed guy that can get loose pretty easily if given a little space.  Fortunately for Wallace, he wont be stuck on "Revis Island" tomorrow night either because the Jets are more likely to put the speedy Cromartie on the lightening quick reciever.  In his first game against the Jets, Wallace got loose for 7 catches and 102 yards but was kept out of the end-zone.  With the Jets likely to blitz Big Ben, Wallace will get a lot of opportunities in one-on-one coverage to make a play.  If he can capitalize the Steelers are likely to move on.

Final Verdict: Steelers 27 Jets 24

Big Ben continues to silence his critics and the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS run out of gas just a little short again. Nick Folk misses a game tying field goal as time expires and the Steelers move on to their second Super Bowl under Mike Tomlin.